UPPCS Cutoff estimate by Oracle IAS methodology used


After the UPPCS 2018  Prelims exam 2018 held on 28.10.2018, we created a google form requesting you to fill in your marks so that we may try to estimate the cutoff for UPPCS Pre 2018 and also released the answer key.

We got around a thousand responses and also talked to many students from Lucknow, Allahabad and Dehradun.

Before the estimate, we must elaborate on the methodology followed for this whole exercise. We have taken following factors into account:-

  1. No of seats in comparison of previous exams of UPPCS.
  2. Negative marking, which was started for the first time in UPPCS
  3. Difficulty level of the paper
  4. Wrong questions.

The number of seats has increased from 677 last year to around 1200-1300 this year. Last time cutoff was 128 and based on this factor alone, the cutoff should dive substantially.

Many people could not resist attempting more questions using the tricks(to guess the answer) that are advertised everywhere these days. In a factual paper like this, the result has been a high number of wrong questions. Even seasoned players have struggled to score more than 110 marks. This should also result in low cutoff.

The difficulty level was similar to previous years, so there should be minimal impact on cutoff.

There were a few wrong questions(at least 4 and few others doubtful) and usually the commission gives marks in these questions to everyone. So this should have minimal effect.

We have removed anomalies from raw data(like improbable scores). Also we have made correction for the general optimism that prevails after the paper. It works in two ways: firstly the students who have done well are the first to report and the under reporting of low marks which are actually higher in number and come in later; secondly, students usually do not stick to one key and are in denial that certain questions that they have attempted can be wrong(evidenced on all exam discussion threads on this forum). Past cutoff(more weight to specially last year’s ) has been taken as a baseline to estimate this year’s cutoff.

The combined effect has led to a significant lowering of estimate.  Based on the data and assumptions, we estimate that the cutoff should lie between 98(+/-5)(excluding wrong questions). However this is only an estimate and not a ‘prediction’. Our sample size was not large enough and I cannot know about people who might have done well in GS but may fail in CSAT.

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Hemant Bhatt
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